I was doing a book event recently and someone asked me to show them in a nutshell how my method differed from the methods of the past, namely basic strategy, the faulty system conjured up nearly 60 years ago by four Army buddies on a lark.
I shuffled a deck of cards and dealt the cards you see in the graphic below.
Basic strategy, blind to the cards that have been dealt would send all of these players to the cleaners. Because all of these players are more likely than not to lose.
My system would save these players as much money as possible, in the way of losses.
Basic would tell the first and third basemen to stand on their 17s and hit all three middle hands not telling all players they were likely losers in this situation.
Only two 10s were dealt. According to my research, five should be dealt by the end of the round if they are balanced. They’re not. Therefore the undealt and unknown mix is heavier than normal in 10s. A significant fact.
Plus, all the cards we’d want in the hole, to give the dealer a bustable 2-card hand, have been dealt and are therefore, according to my research, now less likely than normal to be in the hole.
What’s most likely to be in the hole? One of the three cards not dealt yet: the 8, 10 and Ace – all cards that would ensure the dealer achieves a score and does not bust – which are now overdue. And of these cards, the 10s (being three cards less than normal on the table) and Ace (which would give the dealer a 20 point hand), collectively, are most likely to be in the hole.
Starting hands of 7 and 8 points in this situation look like sure losers. With 10s and Aces most likely to fall on them, they’d achieve point totals of 17 and 18 points most likely or to a lesser extent 18 and 19 points when the dealer’s most likely to achieve 19 points or to a lesser extent 20.
If surrender were allowed – especially with large bets on the table – I’d surrender every hand on the table. You cannot beat the dealer if the cards due will give the dealer a higher score than yours. If you’re more than not likely to lose, why waste your money?
Basic strategists would tell you perhaps that in eight lifetimes of blackjack you might shave some points in losses by hanging onto some losers. But then again, according to what I’ve read, they’ve never tested for betting variations so how would they really understand what protecting your stash and cutting your losses is all about?
When I completed the hand, all players indeed lost. The dealer had a 10 in the hole. No surprise. The players with the 8-point hands drew 10s (no surprise) and the player with the 7-point hand drew an Ace (no surprise)
Only an old schooler would be surprised at these results (and gladly lose their entire bets), not recognizing a losing situation for what it is.
Richard Harvey is a world renowned blackjack researcher and innovator, expert player, coach, columnist, blogger and bestselling author of Blackjack The SMART Way (the NEW Gold Edition), Cutting Edge Blackjack (the NEW Third Edition), NEW Ways To Win MORE at Blackjack and the audio book Richard Harvey’s Blackjack PowerPrep Session. Have blackjack questions? Send them to rharvey2121@netscape.net. For more info see http://www.blackjacktoday.com.
