Players can learn so much using my learning tool, the Circle of 13.
Circle of 13 practice games are played with one suit of cards, dealt (without burning a card) to three players.
It teaches players how to make state-of-the-art card moves. It forces them to think through the specific card situation facing them and introduces them to the simple math needed to make the most correct moves. The idea of “probability,” a big sounding term, also becomes clear.
For example, look at the Circle of 13 game below, played up to the dealer’s move. I had the third baseman double on his 8 point hand for two reasons: 1) based upon the cards that have been dealt, the dealer’s highly likely to bust and here’s a great opportunity to make a maximum amount of money; and 2) because it illustrates how wrong basic strategy is (here it would have you simply hit your hand).
The beauty part with Circle of 13 games is that you can figure out the odds precisely. With the real game, you do that through highly accurate estimation.
So what are the odds the dealer will bust?
An old schooler, not understanding how the math that underlies each card decision changes as the mix of undealt cards changes, would say 43 percent (if they knew the global up card busting rates – which few do).
But that’s wrong. The dealer’s likelihood of busting here is about double that.
What cards have not been seen? There are six – the 8, 9 and four 10-pointers. So the dealer’s likelihood of busting is more than 80 percent.
The 9 and four 10-pointers account for 83 percent of the undealt mix and as hole cards they will cause the dealer to bust 80 percent of the time (because four of the five remaining cards – all but the 8 – would then cause the dealer to bust).
And if the 8 is in the hole, the dealer would only achieve a winning score 20 percent of the time (when the 9 is the dealer’s hit card); the rest of the possible hit cards (the four 10s) would lead to the dealer busting 80 percent of the time.
So doubling was definitely smart.
Even so, there will always be a dope at this table laughing if the hole card and hit cards are the 8 and 9, producing a dealer score of 21.
“See, you shouldn’t have doubled.” they’d shout.
These fools and bullies falsely believe the results of the moment reflect what should have been done. But this example pops that balloon.
You should always play according to what’s most likely to happen. And that wisdom comes from figuring out what’s in the undealt cards – an easy task for state-of-the-art players.
————————–
Richard Harvey is a renowned blackjack researcher and innovator, expert player, coach, columnist, blogger and bestselling author of Blackjack The SMART Way (the NEW Gold Edition), Cutting Edge Blackjack (the NEW Third Edition), NEW Ways To Win MORE at Blackjack and the CD audio book Richard Harvey’s Blackjack PowerPrep Session. Have blackjack questions? Send them to rharvey2121@netscape.net. For more info see www.blackjacktoday.com.
