At a recent mini-seminar, I demonstrated my killer Circle of 13 games learning tool. Everyone was impressed except for a man who I suspected had an axe to grind.
“Yeah, but that’s just 13 cards,” he snorted. “How do you apply that to the real game?”
A fair question. So I whipped out a new deck of cards and dealt the round you see in the card graphic.
“Fabulous!” I shouted, immediately assessing the situation and knowing how to act.
Please take a moment to look at the card example and answer these questions: 1) Should you take insurance?; 2) Should you (the third baseman) double down?; and 3) How should you bet on the next round?
In Circle of 13 games (which I introduced in Cutting Edge Blackjack), we first predict how the dealer is likely to do. With a suit of cards, we can determine likelihoods with exactitude. With the real game, we approximate with good accuracy and mathematical intelligence.
So how’s the dealer going to do? Get a blackjack?
Too many 10s, Aces and high cards in general are on the table. So the undealt mix is heavy in low cards meaning they’re are overdue to come the dealer’s way and yours.
According to my research, there should be just seven 10s dealt per round with seven players. Here there are already seven and the players and dealer have yet to take their turns.
The norm also says that roughly only one Ace and 9 should appear among the first dealt cards. Here we have three Aces and two 9s.
So…take insurance?
No! Normally the 10s make up less than 31 percent of the cards. Here the 10s amount to less than 31 percent of the undealt mix because more 10s than should have been dealt (in a balanced situation) are on the table. Mathematically speaking, then, the likelihood the dealer does NOT have a blackjack is over 70 percent.
How about doubling on your 11 point hand? Basic strategists would salivate at making that move. But it’d be foolish.
The 10s are underrepresented among the undealt cards, as are the 9s, so you’re less likely than normal to get them. These are the two cards you’d want most in doubling because the dealer (with low cards heavy in the undealt mix) is highly likely NOT to bust. Unlikely to draw to a 20 or 21 point total with the one card you’ll get in doubling makes doubling unwise here. Just hit this hand, for a much better chance at winning.
Betting in the next round?
Raise your normal bet by three times on the Aces factor alone. My research shows that when the dealer fails to get an Ace his or her overall busting rate is very high.
Want to learn more? Take my Denver seminar on Nov. 13. Act now and get a big early bird discount. Get tickets at http://www.blackjacktoday.com.
—————————————-
Richard Harvey is a world renowned blackjack researcher and innovator, expert player, blackjack coach and professor, columnist and bestselling author of Blackjack The SMART Way (the NEW Gold Edition), Cutting Edge Blackjack (the NEW Third Edition), NEW Ways To Win MORE at Blackjack and the audio book Richard Harvey’s Blackjack PowerPrep Session. Have blackjack questions? Send them to rharvey2121@netscape.net. For more info see http://www.blackjacktoday.com.
