It’s what’s in the un-dealt cards that give you the wisdom to choose your move.
What’s the dealer’s likelihood of busting? The answer’s in the un-dealt cards.
What’s your likelihood of getting the card you need to make doubling wise? The answer’s in the un-dealt cards.
Why? That’s where the percentages are that directly relate to the “odds” of anything happening.
For example, if the 10s account for 20 percent of the un-dealt cards and 9s account for 4 percent, would you think it would be a good time to double-down on an 11-point hand if the dealer’s up card is a 2?
In this case you’d compare those numbers against what I call “The Norm” – the percentages reflected in a complete deck of cards. Any of my readers or seminar students quickly can tell you what those numbers are. The 10s account for slightly less than 31 percent of the deck and each non-10 accounts for slightly less than 8 percent.
So in the scenario I described above, the 10s are two-thirds their normal amount in the un-dealt cards and the 9s roughly ½ their normal amount. Your odds of getting those much-needed cards are far below normal. That’s not good.
You only want to double-down when:
1. The dealer’s highly likely to bust (more than normal)
2. You’re highly likely to beat the dealer’s score (if the dealer’s NOT likely to bust) with the one extra card you get in doubling
As my readers and seminar students know, the dealer’s 2’s busting rate goes down markedly when 9s and 10s are below their normal proportions in the un-dealt mix. Those are the cards that tend to bust the dealer with the minuscule 2 up card.
So the answer to my question above is: you’d not want to double-down in that scenario.
Do you have to be a genius to figure this out at the table? Not at all. You don’t even need to know the actual percentages to play a winning game. You just have to know how the odds have shifted.
For instance, look at the card example above. Is it not obvious that the third baseman should not double-down?
My readers and seminar students would know instantly. There are too many 10s and 9s on the table (more than normal). What’s normal? I cover that topic in detail in my books and seminars.
I’ve cut and pasted a portion of my Probabilities Calculator (available at blackjacktoday.com) to show you its analysis of this situation, confirming my assessment. (But once again, you don’t need to know the precise numbers.)
It’s all in the un-dealt cards. And it doesn’t take a genius to figure all this out. If you know what you’re looking for and understand the simple math behind the game.
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Richard Harvey is the acclaimed blackjack strategies innovator, expert player, blackjack coach and bestselling author of Blackjack The SMART Way (the NEW Gold Edition), Cutting Edge Blackjack (the NEW Third Edition), NEW Ways To Win MORE at Blackjack and the audio book Richard Harvey’s Blackjack PowerPrep Session. Have blackjack questions? Send them to rharvey2121@netscape.net. For more info see http://www.blackjacktoday.com.
