We all remember the math exercises we did as kids, such as the multiplication tables.
To play a good game of blackjack requires a similar process. That’s the one thing the bad blackjack movies got right. Whether it’s a pressure-filled bootcamp-type training process, as overly dramatic Hollywood flicks would have you believe is the necessary norm, or a much more relaxed but intensive practice session at home, the serious blackjack player does need to get familiar with simple truths that confront them at the blackjack table. This leads to an understanding that makes for winning decisions. And quick decisions, such as are necessary under the glare of the casino lights.
I’ve talked about some learning tools I’ve created and given you in my books, columns and seminars, in order to best grasp the fundamentals that underlie state-of-the-art game strategies.
One I haven’t yet discussed in my columns is the idea of card chemistry and how that concept enables you to decide how likely the dealer is to bust or score.
When it comes to the dealer’s likely outcome, I like to make the process as simple as possible for newcomers to state-of-the-art thinking. So, for instance, instead of looking at all the cards that might combine with the dealer’s up card to give the dealer a bustable score (a stiff, as we call hands of 12-16 points), I suggest students first consider whether the top two worst cards for the dealer are likely to come the dealer’s way. Similarly, I suggest they also look at whether the top two best cards for the dealer are likely to come the dealer’s way. This type of mental exercise and investigation often leads to telling results.
Now each up card combines with the ten different types of cards in blackjack in a unique way. What’s good for one might be bad for another. For example, the dealer would be considerably weakened and more likely to bust if it’s showing a 4 and the hole card turns out to be a 10 (for the highest possible two-card stiff for that up card). But the dealer’s 10 would be made much more strong with that same 10 in the hole.
So, in doing the exercises I’m suggesting here, you should probably use a notepad or graph paper or a computer spreadsheet and write down the ten different types of dealer up cards (the 2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 6s, 7s, 8s, 9s, 10s, and Aces) and get ready to put your thinking cap on.
For each column, representing each type of up card, have one row where you write down each up card’s two worst hole cards (making the dealer the most likely to bust) and another row where you write down each up card’s two best hole cards (making the dealer the most likely to achieve a score; that is, a total of 17-21 points).
Now that I think of it, you could use flash cards if you prefer. The side with the question you must answer could read something like: “The 2’s worst hole cards” or something to that effect. The answer to that question would be, for the 2, that there is primarily one bad hole card for the dealer, the 10s. Every other up card has at least two hole cards that would give the dealer an instant two-card stiff. Not the two. This is one reason I refer to the dealer’s 2 in Blackjack The Smart Way as the “Tricky 2.” (FYI: The 3s in the hole would give the 2 a bad start too, a 5-point hand, so that’s another bad hole card for the 2 and is worthy of your consideration.)
If 10s are not plentiful when the dealer gets his or her cards, the 2 is much less likely (than normal) to bust. Since we know the 2, over the course of a lifetime of blackjack, busts 35 percent of the time, we would know that, lacking the “normal” concentration of 10s in the undealt mix (31 percent if “balanced,” or in the same proportion as in a complete deck), the dealer’s busting rate goes down as the concentration of 10s goes down and will be considerably less than 35 percent if the 10s are in short supply. And we’d make card decisions based upon that reality – in other words, you can stand on a stiff hand if you know the dealer is highly likely to score. If, however, we know the 10s are in an above-normal concentration in the undealt mix (well above 31 percent), then we’d want to stand even on our 12 point hands, knowing the dealer was much more likely to bust than normal.
Speaking of which, what are the 2’s two best hole cards (making the dealer the strongest adversary)?
The 8 and the 9. They give the dealer an instant 10 or 11 point starting hand, which is a very goood starting point indeed. Those hands draw to good scores and win more than not. If you know (using my card analysis methods) that these are among the cards most likely to be in the hole, you would likely need to get more aggressive in handling 12-16 point hands.
Anyway, do this exercise for each up card. And then really study what you’ve found, so that when you’re practicing and later when you’re at the casino, your mind instantly pulls up what you need to know about the up card you’re facing. With this Blackjack 101 basic understanding of card chemistry, you can quickly decide, on the fly, whether you’re facing a strong dealer (that is, the cards that would give him or her a good score are in high concentration in the undealt mix) or weak dealer (that is, the cards that would make the dealer likely to bust are in high concentration in the undealt mix).
Then it becomes more obvious how you should handle your hand.
After you’ve finished making the list or set of flash cards I’ve suggested above, deal yourself a half hour of blackjack and use the card chemistry information (and your assessment of what’s in the undealt mix, based upon the cards you’ve dealt) to see how quickly you can come up with the right answer, as to whether the dealer’s strong or not.
The more you practice in this way, the faster you get. The faster you get, the better you will fare at the casino.
Have fun.
Richard Harvey is a world renowned blackjack researcher and innovator, expert player, blackjack coach and professor, columnist and bestselling author of Blackjack The SMART Way (the NEW Gold Edition), Cutting Edge Blackjack (the NEW Third Edition), NEW Ways To Win MORE at Blackjack and the audio book Richard Harvey’s Blackjack PowerPrep Session. Have blackjack questions? Send them to rharvey2121@netscape.net. For more info see http://www.blackjacktoday.com.
