I was hired to do a mini-seminar in New York recently and it struck me how many misconceptions people have about blackjack. But their misconceptions were very much the same misconceptions I’ve noticed players have from coast to coast.
In the past 13 years (since my first book, Blackjack The Smart Way’s First Edition, came out), I’ve literally met thousands of players. And I haven’t met one truly advanced player or blackjack expert (at least among those NOT using my methods), although some say they are.
Some say they’re experts or advanced but quickly shrink in their claims when I ask them some simple questions even a beginner should know. If I ask them what system they’re using they often can’t say. You can’t make up blackjack strategy on the fly and win.
Those who say they’re card counters rarely can tell me what card counting method they’re using. There are many different card-counting approaches (all of which are highly ineffective by the way). You can’t be proficient in one if you can’t name which one you’re using.
And if they tell me they’re using a known card counting method (which few do), and I deal some cards or throw a card situation visual on the screen and ask them what the count is, they sit there mute, unable to answer the question. Obviously they’re not even proficient in the system they claim to be using.
Very few know the answers to simple questions such as:
Which dealer up cards bust more than 50 percent of the time? (Answer: NONE. But most think the dealer’s 4-6 bust more than 50 percent of the time because so many blackjack writers get it wrong and tell players to “let the dealer bust” when the dealer’s most often NOT likely to bust.)
Which dealer up cards will you beat more than not, over time? (Answer: the 5, 4, 6, 7, 8 and 3, in that order. Few know the 7 and 8 are player-friendly. And most think (wrongly) that the 2 is a player-friendly card, because so many blackjack writers get that wrong and teach their readers it is when it is not. At best, it is a neutral card. Over time, you’ll beat it as often as you’ll lose to it, if you use old school methods. My research shows the dealer’s 2, depending on the mix, could bust as little as 16 percent over the course of 5 or 6 hour periods. That’s just a bit more than the Weakened Ace busts over time (the Ace when blackjacks are not considered; you have no move if the dealer has a blackjack after all). If you understand the 2’s tricky qualities, however, you can beat it more than not, with state-of-the-art approach.)
No one among the thousands I’ve met around the nation, whether advanced or not, has been able to answer simple questions like: If you lose 6 units in 12 rounds betting one unit per round, what’s your losing rate? (Answer: 75 percent.) Nor do they keep track of their table winning percentage (their winning or losing rate, important to knowing whether to stay, raise or lower your bet, or leave).
If they’d known my system, they’d have known the answers to all of these questions. These are Blackjack 101 questions. Yet I challenge you to find the answers in books other than mine.
What’s the point?
You cannot beat the game consistently or achieve your best winning potential unless you learn the truths behind the game. And you need to choose the books you read carefully.
Is the writer a true player? (I am.) Has the writer done any of his own research? Few have and the research they’ve done, if any, is likely a rehash of the faulty random-number-generated “simulations” stuff first introduced in 1962’s Beat The Dealer, written by a very nice man who did well in the stock market but was never a true blackjack player and never put his own money behind the methods he sold to you. (I’ve done well more than 10 years of original research or R&D work, producing a whole new and better way to play the game. And I put my money on the line at the casino, using my own money.)
Can the writer pull out a deck of cards at an event and explain to you when NOT to split Aces?
Can the writer explain how to identify a bad mix of cards (no old schooler can do this because their research didn’t involve cards; they used their computers’ random number generators as a lazy and poor substitute for real card data)?
Can the writer show you how to follow the cards through a shuffle and then show you where best to put the cut card, to cut away bad cards and bring back the good ones? (That’s an essential state-of-the-art blackjack skill I first introduced in Cutting Edge Blackjack.)
Does the writer put his money where his mouth is? Does he go out there and play according to the advice he gives you?
Very few of today’s writers are true players. They dabble, if anything, and are not winners at that. They win on the rare occasions they play only when they’re dealt blackjacks and winning pat hands.
Can you answer the most basic of blackjack questions? If the books you’ve read don’t teach them to you, it’s time to move on to books with the answers you need.
Richard Harvey is a world renowned blackjack researcher and innovator, expert player, coach, columnist, blogger and bestselling author of Blackjack The SMART Way (the NEW Gold Edition), Cutting Edge Blackjack (the NEW Third Edition), NEW Ways To Win MORE at Blackjack and the audio book Richard Harvey’s Blackjack PowerPrep Session. Have blackjack questions? Send them to rharvey2121@netscape.net. For more info see http://www.blackjacktoday.com.
