Two columns ago I taught you how to use the tool above, the spreadsheet, to determine what card imbalances you were facing at any moment, to make the best card moves.
I want to give you a concrete example today, the answer of which you’ll find at the bottom of this column.
You’re in third base (the last seat at the table to make a move). You’ve got a 16-point hand consisting of a 9 and 7. The dealer’s up card is a 9.
You’ve made an accounting of the cards dealt to this point (using my learning tool above) and you’ve come up with the numbers you see. Of the cards that remain, 31 percent are bustmakers – that is, in the hole, the 6s and 7s would give the dealer stiffs of 15 and 16 points and make the dealer more likely to bust.than not (especially given the mix in the undealt cards, also shown above). But yes, as you can see, the dealer’s most likely to get hole cards that lead to scores.
How many helpful cards are left to you? And what are you most likely to get, as hit cards?
So what should you do? What if surrender is allowed?
Don’t peek at the answer…
Because the dealer’s likelihood of busting is almost in the range of the dealer’s 2, you would actually stand on your 16 here if surrender is not allowed. Yes, the dealer’s most likely to achieve a score, but that’s true with the dealer’s 2 as well.
You don’t want to hit your hand because only 23 percent of the cards (the 2 Aces and one 2) would help you. The rest would bust you.
If you have a large bet on the table equal to or more than two times your average bet and/or you were in danger of running out of chips, you might want to surrender. This is definitely a losing situation and you need to stay in it to win it.
Speaking of which: There’ll be a Richard Harvey University Seminar on June 12 in Connecticut! Let me know (at rharvey2121@netscape.net) if you’re interested or see www.blackjacktoday.com for more info.
Richard Harvey is a world renowned blackjack researcher and innovator, expert player, coach, columnist, blogger and bestselling author of Blackjack The SMART Way (the NEW Gold Edition), Cutting Edge Blackjack (the NEW Third Edition), NEW Ways To Win MORE at Blackjack and the audio book Richard Harvey’s Blackjack PowerPrep Session.
