In playing poker over the years, I was able to bring one or two useful concepts to bear in teaching blackjack players concepts that had crossover value.
One such concept was “outs” – one that a number of players who’ve taken my seminars have told me was really helpful in determining the best card move to make.
Look at the first round one-deck card situation in the graphic, for instance, and tell me how many “outs” – cards that remain undealt that would give the third baseman (the one with the 9 and 6) a shot at beating the dealer.
If we were at one of my seminars, I’d tell all the players this board looks “white” – that is, without analyzing the cards in detail, it’s immediately apparent that cards with a lot of white on them (the low cards primarily) predominate. That doesn’t bode well.
Now let’s count the “outs.” We’d especially want 5s and 6s to beat the dealer. Although 4s would also give us a shot, too. With 2s and 3s we wouldn’t bust but we’d be unlikely to beat the dealer.
So how many “outs” do we have? There are no 5s left. Two 6s were already dealt so it’s statistically unlikely we’d get one of those.Three 4s have been dealt. Again, it’s therefore unlikely another would come our way. The cards we especially want, our “outs” – at least our “good outs” – have already been dealt, in higher-than-normal proportions.
The predicament should be obvious, as should the best card moves. But let’s look at a small portion of my Probabilities Calculator’s determination on this situation (for your very own Probability Calculator, see blackjacktoday.com).
Add the numbers up. We have nearly a 75 percent likelihood of busting by taking another card. And 19 percent of the other cards, the 2s and 3s won’t likely help us beat the dealer.
The dealer, on the other hand, has a 53 percent likelihood of having a 9, 10 or Ace in the hole – but especially the 10s or Aces, because they’ve been greatly underrepresented on the table. So an 18 or 19 are the dealer’s most likely scores.
What’s our best move?
If surrender’s allowed, I’d surrender. Especially if my bet was above my average.
If surrender’s not an option, we’d be in a rock-and-hard-place situation as I call it. Neither standing nor hitting give us good odds of winning here.
Frankly, given the bleak nature of our reality, I’d rather stand and hope the dealer busts. We have no real shot at winning here. We have no “good outs.”
Richard Harvey is the acclaimed blackjack strategies innovator, expert player, blackjack coach and bestselling author of Blackjack The SMART Way (the NEW Gold Edition), Cutting Edge Blackjack (the NEW Third Edition), NEW Ways To Win MORE at Blackjack and the audio book Richard Harvey’s Blackjack PowerPrep Session. Have blackjack questions? Send them to rharvey2121@netscape.net. For more info see http://www.blackjacktoday.com
