Blackjack’s not-so-perfect “basic strategy” promoted by every instant casino expert in the mass media assumes you have no brain to think. That’s why they talk about the casino having the advantage.
Fortunately for you and me, we have grey matter and we can figure out much better moves to make at the table than the one-size-fits all basic strategy method would have you make. And if you’re not sure if you’re making the right moves in practice games at home, you could always use my new Probabilities and Imbalances Calculator (available at www.blackjacktoday.com) to double-check your strategies.
In fact, let’s do that now. Look at the card situation above and tell me if the third baseman should split those Aces.
Anyone who’s ever read an old school book knows that one of their adages is that you should “always split Aces.” A stupid idea – on an “always” basis – as I’ve demonstrated before.
For what is your restriction when you split Aces? The dealer will give you just one extra card on each of the new hands, the privilege of which costs you an extra bet.
Are the odds ever in your favor in doing that? Yes, the move sometimes makes sense but often does not.
Bear in mind that you have a 9 percent likelihood, over time, of getting a 10 on each Ace; not great odds, especially against the dealer’s high up cards, which score roughly four times as often as they bust.
Does splitting the Aces make sense here? Let’s put the cards we see on the table in my Calculator and see what it comes up with (see below):
Well. You don’t have to be a mathematician to see what cards are most likely to fall upon each Ace.
Look at the rightmost “High” and “Low” card analysis (which includes Aces with the Low cards, which I define as 2s through 7s; Aces act as low cards because: a) they don’t bust the dealer; and b) they give our split Aces sub-par totals). You have a 60 percent likelihood of getting low cards – cards that you do not want on each Ace.
And my research (introduced in Cutting Edge Blackjack) shows the dealer’s 2’s busting rate, normally 35 percent over time, goes down when 10s are less likely in the hole (as is the case here).
Split here and you’re looking at two probable losers, for twice the money. Two Aces is not a bad starting hand anyway.
Richard Harvey is the acclaimed blackjack strategies innovator, expert player, blackjack coach and bestselling author of Blackjack The SMART Way (the NEW Gold Edition), Cutting Edge Blackjack (the NEW Third Edition), NEW Ways To Win MORE at Blackjack and the audio book Richard Harvey’s Blackjack PowerPrep Session. Have blackjack questions? Send them to rharvey2121@netscape.net. For more info see http://www.black
jacktoday.com.
