Over the last few issues we addressed some of the darker moments of odds and probabilities; that of the donkey playing a hand down to the wire and catching the miracle out that made his hand and thus scooped your – and everyone else’s – chips into his stack. All that noise would be quasi-endurable except for the gloating and self-congratulation:
“I knew it would come…”
“Those are my lucky cards…”
“I had a feeling…”
Blah, blah, blah…you’re still a doofus.
OK, then; we can stifle our ill-will and assuage our frustrations by consoling ourselves with something like:
“A blind dog finds a bone once in a while.”
“A blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.”
“Even a donkey has his day.”
…and other meaningless platitudes that, in reality, have a small kernel of truth but do not make one feel any better for the experience.
But that’s the dark side of the game where the Doofus Factor comes into play. The Doofus Factor is a direct corollary to Murphy’s Law (“Anything that can go wrong will go wrong, at the worst possible moment.”
It would read: “The probability of the worst hand getting there is directly proportional to the amount of money in the pot.” Meaning – if there is not a lot of money in the pot, the worst hand will not even get close (and you will win a small pot). However, if the pot is huge the player with the worst hand and longest odds will make it. Against you. After you are deeply committed to your hand. Right before you have to leave the game. And it’s snowing outside. All the way home.
*&#@ .
Like I said, that’s the dark side. That is when and where the doofi (plural of doofus) can get to you after a fun-filled night and ruin the stack it took so long to build. You can’t do much about their style of play, it is what it is. All you can do is take comfort in the fact that over the long run they are losing players and ultimately you will profit from their losing ways.
I think it was Doyle Brunson who said, “People don’t realize how long the ‘Long Run’ can be.”
So take the long view; this game was just a small action in a much bigger war. You can come back tomorrow and fight again. And in doing so, use the odds, percentages and probabilities to your advantage.
The quick way to figure odds is to double the number of outs you have, add 2 and that is the approximate percentage of making your hand. For example: Drawing to a flush gives you nine outs, doubling that results in 18, plus two equals 20, which is slightly higher than the 19.6 percent a full mathematical calculation would give. So, it’s close enough for government work. The main thing to keep in mind for your hand to be a success is you should be drawing for the nuts…or really, really close if you have a good read on the other players.
Here in summation are some basic probabilities of hands making their draw. Keep in mind probabilities are the number of times out of 100 your hand will come in. A thinking player knows these probabilities and can adjust his play accordingly; if there is a 33 percent chance of making the hand (1 time out of 3) but there is only one opponent (payoff is 2 for 1), over the long run that play will cost you money. If there are 4 or 5 players in the hand, your call to win at 1 time out of 3 will result in a payout of 4 or 5 to 1. Great odds…if you can get them.
A straight AND flush draw will make their hand 55 percent of the time with turn and river to go, and 33 percent of the time with just the river to come.
A flush draw – having 9 outs – will hit 35 percent of the time with turn and river coming and just 20 percent with only the river to come.
A straight draw – 8 outs – has a 31.5 percent chance with turn and river and 17 percent with just the river coming.
An inside straight draw (remember your old grandpappy telling you “Never draw to an inside straight.”?) will hit 16.5 percent of the time before the turn and river, but just 8 percent with only the river to go.
A wired pair flops a set nearly 12 percent of the time.
A-K flop either an ace or king nearly 33 percent of the time.
Two suited cards flop a flush about 0.8 percent of the time.
Two unpaired cards make a split pair almost 2.2 percent of the time.
Finally, my favorite quote about odds came from one of those “Police Squad” movies with Leslie Nielson (sadly, just passed away). He was asking about the chances of Nordberg (played by a former football great now searching all the golf courses in Florida for the “real killer”) who had endured massive trauma as only a Police Squad movie could dish out:
“What are his odds, about 50 – 50?”
“Yes, with a 10 percent chance of either one of those happening.”
Gotta love it…
