There is an old joke – and as with all old jokes, fables and sayings, founded upon fundamentals of truth – that 10 out of 9 people do not understand odds. This is an interesting statistic because, as we all know, 74.35 percent of all statistics are made up on the spot. Seriously though, it is with an understanding of odds – pot odds in the poker parlance – that we poker aficionados can then determine if a particular bet, call or raise has an expectation of success.
Without taking the time to perform arithmetic gymnastics, here’s a rule of thumb to figure out the odds of something happening in poker. Multiply the number of outs for your hand by two, add two to that sum and you’ll have the approximate chance of making that hand. For example: with a flush draw on the turn you have nine outs to make your hand. 9 times 2 equals 18, plus 2 equals 20. 20 percent is really close to the actual 19.6 percent chance you would come up with if you had done the mathematics.
There is a difference in describing making a hand when described as percentage or as odds. Odds present the bad news first in the ratio of failures to successes; the first number is the predicted failures and the second number represents expected successes. For example: If the odds are three-to-one (represented as 3:1) against you, you should experience three failures for every time you succeed. Put another way, if the same event were staged four times (3+1), you would lose three times and win once. A percentage, on the other hand, represents the chances of a particular hand being successfully completed. For example, a 35 percent chance of success means a win (success) 35 times out of 100, or roughly one time out of three.
So how does a poker player put this information to use? First off, a thinking player knows the probabilities of successfully making any draw. Here are some common Hold’em examples, in an ascending order of likelihood:
Two suited cards will flop a flush 0.8 percent of the time (about 1 time out of 100).
Two unpaired cards will flop a split pair 2.2 percent of the time (about 1 time out of 50).
Two suited cards will make a flush 6.5 percent of the time (about 1 time out of 15).
Two suited cards will flop a four-flush 10.9 percent of the time (about 1 time out of 10).
A wired pair flop a set nearly 12 percent of the time (about 1 time out of 8).
A-K will flop at least one Ace or one King 32.4 percent of the time (about 1 time out of 3).
So again, you may ask, just how does a thinking poker player put all this to good use? Think about what your hand is and what the chances are for making the hand. If you have a 20 percent chance of winning, your call should not be more than 20 percent of the pot. If you have a 32.4 percent chance (say, holding A – K) of flopping top pair – top kicker but you are up against just one player, the odds against you are 3:1 but you are only getting paid 2:1 on your investment (IF you win). In the long run this kind of action will be a major leak in your bankroll. Hanging on to unprofitable draws for whatever reason is a huge reason players are lifelong losers rather than consistent winners.
There’s no good excuse for this even if you are not mathematically inclined. You are not alone, as the majority of us find ourselves in that boat. But some simple knowledge can pay large dividends: If you hold a flush draw after the flop (and it IS the nut flush, right?), the odds against completing it are just under 2:1. If the pot is $60 and you must call a $10 bet, if you win you will be paid 6:1 ($60 for your $10). Those are GREAT odds to call the bet; you will lose 1 time for every 3 but when you win you will be paid $6 for every $1 you invest. Those are odds for success, and it will pay you to know the odds. In aviation we do a lot of performance predictions because, as an old pilot friend used to tell me “I want to know what’s going for me, and what’s going against me.” That’s what you’re doing when you compute the odds, even if you use the “TLAR Method” (That Looks About Right). You’ll know what’s going for you and what’s up against you. With knowledge, there is power.
We’ll have some more odds and probabilities next article; stuff you can really use, if you just think about poker.
“We’re off to see the Wizard, the wonderful Wizard of Odds.”
Drew Chitiea is a semi-pro poker player living in Colorado. His tournament wins are over $500,000 with 4th place at a WPT event and 2nd place at Binion’s WPC.
