Three big mistakes perpetuated by the Old School blackjack writers and players:
That the Hi-Lo card counting system (which counts 2s-6s as +1 each as they hit the table and 10s and Aces as -1 each as they hit the table) is close to perfect in analyzing the cards. (The MIT teams of the early 1990s used this system, invented by Harvey Dubner in 1963.)
That Aces, in card counting and analyzing the cards, should be considered High cards (equivalent to the effect the 10s have, for instance).
And that card imbalances that favor the dealing of Aces in a future round are good for the player.
All wrong.
First, consider the inconvenient truth that the dealer will never bust in taking an extra card if that card is an Ace. Perhaps that’s why the dealer’s busting rate is at its lowest when receiving Aces.
And when Aces are overdue, does the dealer not have an equal chance of getting one of those Aces, perhaps for a blackjack?
Second, consider the card situation here. What does the Hi-Lo card counting system tell you? If you’re not certain, look at the graphic below, from a portion of my Imbalances and Probabilities Calculator’s assessment of this situation.
According to the Hi-Lo system, there are an equal number of High and Low cards on the table and among the undealt mix. So there’s no need to worry. We’re in a normal situation.
But are we? My assessments show instead that a majority of the undealt cards favor the dealer achieving a good score. Most of the undealt cards are Low cards and Aces!
Furthermore, look at the graphic above, also from my Calculator.
The 2s through the 9s and the Aces would help the dealer’s 2 avoid busting. What is the total percentage of these cards in the undealt mix? (I’ll let you add this up. Hint: The percentage of cards that would help the dealer avoid busting is HUGE!)
So…if you were the player in third base, would you double down?
(NO! You’re most likely to get a card that would give you an inadequate score (do the math with the Calculator!) whereas the dealer is highly likely to get a good score!)
This dramatically shows you why you’d do poorly using the Hi-Lo and Old School methods.
Richard Harvey is the acclaimed blackjack strategies innovator, expert player, blackjack coach and bestselling author of Blackjack The SMART Way (the NEW Gold Edition), Cutting Edge Blackjack (the NEW Third Edition), NEW Ways To Win MORE at Blackjack and the audio book Richard Harvey’s Blackjack PowerPrep Session. Have blackjack questions? Send them to rharvey2121@netscape.net. For more info see http://www.blackjacktoday.com.
