It is bet and called to me, I raise all-in (with the “nuts”) and get re-raised all-in by the initial bettor and called by the chip leader (the only player not all-in). At this point all the hands are shown. At the same moment before the river is revealed the table freezes for about two minutes with some type of computer glitch. This gives me a good chance to see all the hands.
The SB. has the 4 of hearts, 5 of clubs, J of clubs, and the 4 of spades. The BB has the 4 of clubs 5 of diamonds, 5 of spades, and the J of Spades. The next player has the 89 of clubs and 89 of spades. The next player has K of spades, Q of spades, the Ten of spades and the Ten of clubs. I determine in a few seconds that all these players are “drawing dead to my 3 Kings. I’m feeling really great about my chances when I look at the hand of my final opponent who is also the chip-leader. He has the A2 of hearts and the 3 6 of diamonds. I can immediately see he is drawing at some outs. Then I start to count them. Any A, 2, 3, 6, or 7 make him a straight or flush. All the 4s, 5s Qs, and Ks are already out in players’ hands. The only remaining 8s, 9s, Ts, and Js are diamonds or hearts making him a flush. Every possible card makes him the winner of the hand and the tournament. Is that right? I quickly run through the possibilities again.
I have the “nuts” and I’m DRAWING STONE COLD DEAD!
Jerry finished by saying “I felt I had played well to finish third (since places 2-6 all went busted in the same hand, they all finish the tournament in the same position as they began the hand. The value you place on having “the nuts” should be based on the probability that they will be the winning hand (just as you would value any hand.) This probability ranges from 0 percent (in hands like Jerry’s last tournament hand) to 100 percent ( e.g. when the board flops you a royal flush). It is determined by a great number of factors, such as quality/number of opponents, likelihood of a better hand being made, etc. You certainly want to be aggressive when your winning probabilities are high, but having “the nuts” on the flop and/or turn and overplaying them as unbeatable can be very costly. This is especially true in Pot Limit Omaha on the flop when your “nuts” are a straight or trips and the board is suited and/or on the turn it is double suited. In such cases you are often not the favorite against 3 or more opponents. When your opponents hold some combinations of cards in their hands, similar to your last tournament hand, the “nuts” can even have a negative win potential.
My conclusion would be that Jerry played very lucky up to the final hand. Hitting the deuce of diamonds for the nut flush, making quad aces, and out-drawing on the turn an opponent who has the same “nuts” as you on the flop are the kinds of lucky things that often happen to a winner or high finisher in a tournament. However, flopping 3 Broadways and having them all stand up is something many experienced PLO players claim hasn’t and won’t happen to them in their lifetime.
Jerry, even though you were unlucky to be Drawing Dead in the last hand, many of your opponents will tell their Bad Beat story about this guy (you) who made a lot of Deadly Draw-outs against the odds and knocked them out of a tournament they should have won. But that’s how it is in the “World of Bad Beats.”
