Luck, players, plays, beats, medicine, rulings, people, questions, tells, puzzles, and even “bad wins” are all a part of poker. This concludes my series on “The Bad.”
A Bad Beat Puzzle
Every poker player has told his or her share of bad beat stories and heard more than they wanted to hear. But what are the odds of a particular bad beat occurring? What are the worst beats possible? Match each of the following “bad beats” with the correct mathematical odds of them occurring.
Approximate Odds:
A. One in a million
B. One in 50,000
C. One in 13,000
D. One in 1000
E. One in 500
F. One in 22
G. One in 49,000,000
H. One in 284,000
BAD BEATS: (all play is heads up)
1. Hold’em — you hold AK of spades and the flop is AK of Diamonds and A of clubs. You lose to a player holding the Jack of diamonds and Jack of Clubs.
2. Hold’em — you hold the 7/8 of hearts and the flop is the 9/10/J of hearts. You lose to a player holding the AK of hearts.
3. Hold’em — you hold the 3 of diamonds and 3 of clubs and the flop is the 3 of spades, 3 of hearts and 8 of hearts. You lose to a player holding the K of hearts and K of clubs.
4. Stud — you are rolled up with AAA and your opponent is rolled up with KKK. On Fourth Street, you are dealt to first and catch the fourth Ace. You lose the hand. (Note: calculate the odds of your losing after you get the 4th ace and before your opponent gets their 4th card.)
5. Stud — you are rolled up with JJJ and catch another J on Fourth Street. You lose to a player holding the 2/9 of diamonds and the 3/7 of clubs.
6. Draw — you are dealt a pat king high straight flush. You lose to an opponent who draws 5 cards (your house rules allow this if the player has no pair, no Ace, and no face card).
7. You are playing half stud and half Hold’em. On back to back hands, No. 4 above occurs followed by No. 3 above.
8. Life — you failed high school math and still are able to calculate all the above odds correctly.
Suggested “Bad Beat” Standards (based on odds)
| ODDS | CATEGORY |
| A. 10/ 1 or under | Whiner — does not qualify |
| B. From 10/1 to 30/1 | Mild — happens to all, no one interested |
| C. From 30/1 to 300/1 | “Bad Beat”—friends will listen for a max of 2 minutes |
| D. From 300/1 to 1000/1 | “Really Bad Beat”—strangers will listen for 2 minutes. |
| E. From 1000/1 to 10000/1 | “Really, Really Bad Beat” — must be published to be believed. |
| F. More than 10000/1 | National Disaster—should be eligible for relief from Uncle Sam |
Correct Answers: 1.) E; 2.) F; 3.) D; 4.) B; 5.) C; 6.) H; 7.) G; 8.) A
1. Your opponent can make JJ or Q/10 of diamonds. The odds of JJ are 2/45 x 1/44=2/1980=1/990. He has an equal chance of making the Q/10 of diamonds. Adding the 2 together and you get 2/990=1/495.
2. Your opponent needs the Q of hearts. The odds are 1/45 plus 1/44 which is approximately 1/22.
3. Your opponent must make 4 kings. The odds are 2/45 x1/44=1/990. THIS IS THE WORST BEAT IN HOLD’EM.
4. Your opponent must catch Q/J/10/9 in the same suit as one of his kings to make a straight flush and beat you. The odds: 12/45 x 1/13,244=1/49,590.
NOTE: The 1/13,244 is calculated in 5 below. THIS IS THE WORST BEAT IN STUD.
5. Your opponent must catch the 4/5/6 of clubs. Odds: 3/44 x 2/43 x 1/42= 6/79,469=1/13,244.
6. Your opponent must draw a royal flush. Odds: 15/42 x 4/41 x 3/40 x 2/39 x 1/39=360/102,080,160=1/283,556. THIS IS THE WORST BEAT IN DRAW.
7. 1/990 x 1/49,590=1/49,094,100.
8. Just a guess.
